Introduction
As we enter 2024, what will the economic environment be like this year? What products will sell better… I believe that many people in the industry are eager to know about these questions.
Summarizing the research and industry operation of experts such as the United Nations, my country’s central bank, and Wall Street, the answer is roughly: there are positive factors in the market, but there are still many uncertain variables.
Lv Daliang, director of the Statistics and Analysis Department of the General Administration of Customs, summarized in answering similar questions: “The world economic recovery and sustainable development still face huge challenges, and the external environment facing my country’s foreign trade is still complex and severe. But we must also see that the positive factors for Our country’s economic recovery are still accumulating.”
Our country’s foreign trade faces a complex and severe external environment.
Specifically, when it comes to the toy industry, there are both good and bad news.
Some Characteristics of The Current Toy Industry Operation
As the world’s largest toy producer and exporter, the operation of China’s toy industry is, to a certain extent, a microcosm of the world’s toy market.
In 2023, China’s toy exports reached 40.57 billion US dollars, down 12.2% year-on-year, with negative growth for 8 consecutive months. Therefore, even though the Christmas toy market in Europe and the United States is still lively, and China’s “Double Eleven” trendy toy products have a good sales record, the overall market consumption is relatively weak. After carefully combing the market information and data, the following characteristics are more obvious:
▐ Feature 1: Market Products Are In Excess Of Demand.
After the outbreak of the epidemic, the implementation of epidemic prevention and isolation measures once made toys hot-selling, attracting a large amount of capital into the toy industry, which led to a surge in the number of toy-related companies. Reflected in the market, there are a wide variety of toy products. Whether it is a newborn baby or an elderly person, there are always many toys to choose from in the market.
Information shows that in 2023, China’s trendy toy companies alone added more than 70,000 sellers on e-commerce platforms.
In the European and American Christmas market, as soon as various e-commerce platforms and large shopping malls entered the fourth quarter, they rushed to launch a shopping list of “Christmas’ hottest toys” for children and parents to refer to. Each list often lists dozens or hundreds of products.
As a traditional toy, building blocks now have not only buildings, cars, airplanes, rockets, but also flowers and fruits, with dazzling styles.
Amazon’s 2023 hot toy list recommended products-Lego City series family house and electric car set
There are countless toys such as electronic remote control, animation IP authorization, etc. in the market, and the product supply exceeds demand.
▐ Feature 2: Low-price Strategy Has Become A Consensus.
In view of the global economic downturn, it is very likely to affect consumers’ willingness to buy toys. In 2023, both e-commerce and physical stores will vigorously launch low-priced products to attract consumers.
The list of “the hottest toys for children” listed by the well-known e-commerce platform Amazon has several products priced at less than $10, such as the Benzem 28-pack children’s pull-back car, which is priced at only $9.99. Larger products such as the EsiPlay slot car track set, which comes with 4 slot cars, 2 controllers, and a double racing game circular crossing track, are priced at only $39.99.
The business strategy of physical stores is roughly the same. In the “Top Toy List for Christmas 2023” of large supermarket Walmart, nearly half of the products are priced below $25.
Some products below $25 in the list of popular Christmas toys released by Walmart in 2023
Many companies are actively developing various mini products with low prices. Mini Brand toys became the top five most popular products on “Black Friday” (Christmas shopping day), which shows that this is a successful strategy.
Challenges And Opportunities Facing The Industry
Toys are not necessities of life. The prosperity of market consumption demand is closely related to economic development.
All authoritative organizations are cautious in predicting the prospects of global economic development in 2024. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) believes that the global economic growth rate will slow down to 2.7% this year, which is the lowest global economic growth rate since 2020.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the global economic growth rate to be 2.9% in 2024, which is 0.1 percentage point lower than its forecast in July last year.
In such an economic environment, the toy industry is likely to still face a market situation of economic downturn and declining consumer willingness. The following situations are particularly worthy of attention by enterprises.
▐ Situation 1: Raw Material Prices And RMB Exchange Rate May Fluctuate Greatly.
my country’s toys are mainly exported, and the production costs of enterprises are not only related to the prices of raw materials such as plastics, but also have a lot to do with the RMB exchange rate.
Research by investment banks such as Goldman Sachs believes that in 2024, as the Fed’s interest rate hike ends, the US dollar interest rate and exchange rate will continue to fall, which is conducive to the return of commodity investment demand. It is expected that the annual return rate of the S&P GSCI Commodity Index, which is mainly based on oil, will reach 21%, of which the energy sector will rise by 31% and the industrial metal sector will rise by 17%. In terms of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar, it is likely to fluctuate between 1 US dollar and 6.9 to 7.3 RMB throughout the year, which may be a trend of “high at the beginning of the year and low in the middle”. Although such speculation may not be accurate, it still has certain reference value.
▐ Situation 2: Intensified Involution In The Same Industry Is Inevitable.
Toys are not only a long-lasting industry, but also helpful in solving employment problems. Therefore, countries such as India, Vietnam, Mexico and even Iran have clearly stated that they will support the development of the toy industry, and some toy multinational companies have also set up new product processing plants in these countries.
Under such circumstances, overseas orders of Chinese toy companies will undoubtedly be subject to increasing competition from peers in the future; in China, during the three-year epidemic, the relatively good sales of toys, especially trendy products, have made many people rush to join the toy industry. According to data, last year, more than one million registered companies with toy-related businesses were added nationwide.
In fact, the increase in peer competition has caused the prices of some products such as baby carriages to continue to fall.
However, there are opportunities in every crisis, and there are also many benefits for the development of our country’s toy industry in 2024.
▐ Benefit 1: There Are Signs Of Improvement In Toy Market Demand.
After the meeting between the leaders of China and the United States in San Francisco in November last year, the clamor for “de-Sinicization” of trade in Western countries has eased, which is conducive to my country’s toy processing companies to win more overseas orders.
The intuitive phenomenon is that the 134th Autumn Canton Fair has attracted more than 190,000 overseas buyers from 216 countries and regions, an increase of more than 50% year-on-year. Exhibitors reported that not only the number of visitors to this Autumn Fair has increased, but also the orders are relatively straightforward.
In addition, after the product destocking in 2023, the orders of European and American toy multinational companies in 2024 are expected to return to normal. Due to the high requirements of multinational companies for product quality, many orders can only rely on Chinese companies for production.
▐ Benefit 2: The Toy Consumer Group Has A Tendency To Continue To Expand.
Although the epidemic prevention and control policies have been optimized, the consumption of kidult (big children) toys stimulated by the epidemic isolation measures is still growing. As early as 2022, more than a quarter of the global toy consumption was contributed by big children. In 2023, this trend has not weakened at all, and there are signs of further spread.
It is reported that last Christmas in Europe and the United States, “more than half of adults planned to buy toys for themselves during this holiday.”
The survey of the American Toy Association also has similar results: “We found that adults not only shop for themselves, but 20% of them also buy toys for their elderly parents and other elderly relatives.”
In China, trendy toy products such as blind box toys and cotton dolls have also been successfully expanded to young consumers. Last year, the market size of cotton dolls alone exceeded 1 billion yuan.
“Toys are expected to become a hobby consumption for adults” is the summary of this phenomenon by foreign media.

In summary, although the market operating environment is expected to improve this year, how to survive and develop in an environment of increasingly fierce competition among peers and oversupply in the market is something that companies have to face.
When deploying this year’s work, the Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized: “We must fully implement the new development concept, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, and strive to promote high-quality development.” For the toy industry, it can be said to be targeted, because the development model of China’s toy industry may be imitated and copied by Southeast Asia and other places, and my country’s toy manufacturing industry will face more competition from peers in the future.
Therefore, strengthening technological transformation, actively developing innovative products, and upgrading from a major toy producer to a toy manufacturing power as soon as possible are very urgent tasks facing enterprises.